UK - According to a study conducted by Cancer Research UK, it is estimated that by 2024, the rate of people diagnosed with lung cancer will drop from the current rate of 50 per 100,000 to 40 per 100,000. The research team studied population and disease data from multiple organizations, including the Office for National Statistics.
Researchers believe several factors will be responsible for this promising change. One of the more significant factors mentioned was the smoking ban.
At the same time, the study also concluded that the actual number of people living with lung cancer is expected to rise due to the aging population of current smokers. Because of the time lag between when a person takes up smoking and when the disease develops in the body, lung cancer mostly affects older people. Researchers predict that the number of people living with lung cancer could rise to over 41,600 in 2024 from the current number of roughly 38,500.
Of all lung cancer cases, 90% of them are attributed to smoking. According to the study, the number of male cases is higher than female cases due to the fact male smokers outnumber their female counterparts. It is estimated that by 2024, the number of men diagnosed each year compared to women will be about 22,000 versus 18,000 respectively.
The rate of lung cancer cases have steadily declined since the early 1970s when the rate of men diagnosed with the disease was 150 per 100,000. The cause for that number was attributed to record-high smoking rates during the 1940s and 50s.
One of the study's co-author, Professor Max Parkin, was quoted saying, "These predictions are based on what we know to date about the current figures and trends for lung cancer. As fewer people smoke, we should see a lower rate of the disease."
Cancer Research UK's director of tobacco control, Jean King, attributed the study's figures to the effectiveness of tobacco control measures and urged for more similar regulations, citing a statistic that one in five people still smoke.
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